Ebola In Kenya – Why it’s Not Yet Uhuru

On two separate occasions, Kenya has become subject to Ebola-stigma. In one occasion, a group of children visiting Oklahoma City in the US, faced backlash, because residents feared they would spread Ebola to their own children. On the the second occasion Parents from a British school have threatened to pull their children from school over a planned trip  to Kenya, for fear that the teachers would contract Ebola in Kenya.

“Fearbola” is a term being used to describe this (rather justified) but exaggerated fear of Ebola. Unfortunately it is also translating into stigma for entire populations – countries and increasingly continents (Africa). 

Mathematical modelling suggests that we are yet to see the worst of this pandemic  -  with some even suggesting a lot more countries including Kenya and other East African countries will have Ebola cases. After peaking Ebola cases will then being to scale back, but that will not be until after June 2015.

Yet it is not all doom and gloom. Senegal had its 1^st Ebola case reported in August 29^th, and in just under two months, on the 17^th of October, it was declared Ebola free by WHO. Nigeria too, is most likely going to get similar certification in the coming few days.

But for Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, Ebola reproduction continues. Some are asking why these countries are unable to control their cases while Senegal and (soon) Nigeria have been able to do so. Perhaps the most important question, for us, is whether Kenya would follow the Liberia or Senegalese example were Ebola to break out here?

Unlike the West African countries where Ebola comes through road-transport migration, in Kenya it is likely to come through our Airports if direct or through road transport if any of our neighboring countries begin to report such cases.  Whatever the scenario, Kenya’s MO in such situations is shroud with secrecy – often using the epidemic as opportunities to further corrupt deal making.  But for argument’s sake let us simulate a scenario analysis:

Option A: - Best Case scenario. Our best case scenario is not to have Ebola case at all, but should we have an outbreak, government and other leaders move with speed to educate the people – on the two important response strategies of Hygiene and Social distancing. The First Lady’s beyond zero campaign, and the enormous good will she enjoys might come in handy here – and in about 60 days, Kenya would be declared Ebola free. 

Option B: Most likely scenario: Unfortunately we are a country whose leadership has consistently invested in weakening state institutions and rewarding corruption – at all levels. This is one of the main reasons why terrorism and insecurity remain such huge challenges. So while Kenyans at individual levels will invest in improving their personal hygiene, corruption will not allow the social control intervention to work – especially among the rich and political class. So Kenya will continue to experience moderated cases of Ebola – but perhaps not as bad as any of the 3 countries in West Africa. 

Option C: Worst Case Scenario: - The worst case scenario is more likely to be about how resources meant for mitigating spread of Ebola are used rather than full-scale outbreak. In this country we are lucky to have a relatively free and independent media – which means the political class will be kept on its toes – creating Scenario B above. That said, people in government will set a side huge amounts of funds for the response, while only a tiny fraction will actually go for the intended purpose.

That said, scenario B and C above, will not stop the collapse of tourism (or what remains of it), international travel (read Kenya Airways), and exports from Kenya. Kenya already has a serious social stigma attached to international terrorism (as a vulnerable country), an Ebola stigma will take a very long time to recover, and with huge economic impact. 

As the President addresses Kenya tomorrow on Mashujaa day (20th October), I hope he will give significant attention to this challenge – and call for necessary leadership to keep it off our boarders – the only really best case option.  Meanwhile one can only hope, Kenyans realize their voting considerations are not anywhere near delivering on the Uhuru (in Jaramogi sense of the word), they so crave for.